He says Democratic Gov. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? This includes personalizing content and advertising. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. And we just want that to continue. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. At least Biden is honest, he said. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. That is, until this year. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? We dont want it, she said. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. "If. Its gone, Jacobs said. Logistically, its a disaster. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. I hope.. Pre-performance Lobby events. Their fear is real, mine is. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. It will cycle through. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. Nothing is free, Hawker said. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? Peoples common sense level is cooked. I believe in a time cycle. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. This claim is basically absurd. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. 'I Should Start Voting'. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. I find that hard to believe. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. I trust the system implicitly, he said. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. That is a very good thing to have. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. I got a life. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. bellwether. Its horrible. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. Two states have announced recounts. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. She shook her head at the high price of gas. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. I quit voting once out of the union.. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. SACRAMENTO . Your email address will not be published. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. Please read our comments policy before commenting. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. I would never vote any other way. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. Our roads need to be fixed. I think it worked out without me.. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. Im not happy with the way things are now. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation.